Westpac's October 2026 home ownership research found 75% were holding off buying until prices fell further. If you're doing the same, keep checking what you can afford as well as what homes cost.
You've saved a deposit, but buying while prices are falling can feel like getting the timing wrong. Waiting for another drop may seem sensible.
The catch is that your borrowing limit can move too. A lower purchase price doesn't automatically leave you better placed to buy.
What are you waiting for?
If you want a clearer idea of what you can afford, start by separating the purchase price from the loan.
The 75% figure in Westpac's October 2026 research covers buyers generally. For a first home buyer, the practical question is whether another price fall would bring a suitable home within reach, or whether your deposit and loan budget need to change first.
Other buyers' plans won't tell you when your preferred suburb will reach its lowest price, or whether a suitable home will still be available then.
Instead, make the reason for waiting specific. You might need a larger deposit, a more stable income or a property whose repayments fit your budget. Those are things you can check and work towards.
If the only condition is that the market must stop changing, it's harder to know when you'll feel ready. Set a purchase budget and a repayment limit now, then revisit both as your savings and the homes you're considering change.
Is there more room to negotiate?
In some markets, yes. But a national headline won't tell you what an individual seller will accept.
Cotality's October 2026 Home Value Index reported that capital city homes took a median 39 days to sell, compared with 23 days a year earlier. A median is the middle result, so some properties still sell much faster and others take longer.
More time can give you room to inspect carefully, compare recent sales and make an offer that reflects the property's condition. It doesn't remove the need for your own due diligence like a building inspection or a contract review.
Look closely at the homes that actually fit your needs. How long have they been listed? Has the asking price changed?
What did similar properties nearby sell for, and did they need the same amount of work?
Use those answers to support an offer rather than applying a blanket discount to every listing. The seller can still say no, and a well-priced home can attract competition even in a slower market. Knowing your limit beforehand helps you decide whether to negotiate or move on.
Can a lower price still mean a higher repayment?
Yes, if the loan rate rises enough. Here's an illustrative example using monthly principal-and-interest repayments over 30 years, with no fees.
You have $150,000 available for the deposit, with buying costs funded separately. On a $750,000 home, you borrow $600,000. At an assumed 6.25% rate, the repayment is $3,694.30 a month.
Now suppose the price drops to $735,000 and your deposit stays the same. You borrow $585,000, but at an assumed 6.50% rate the repayment is $3,697.60 a month. You've borrowed $15,000 less, yet the monthly payment is $3.30 higher. These rates illustrate the calculation; they're not advertised offers or forecasts.
Banks also check whether you could manage repayments at a higher rate. APRA requires a serviceability buffer of at least 3 percentage points for bank home lending, subject to its rules.
The RBA raised the cash rate in September 2026, and home loan rates usually follow cash rate changes, although lenders set their own pricing. If you checked your borrowing capacity earlier in the year, have it checked again before relying on that budget.
What should you do while you wait?
Keep preparing, even if you don't plan to make an offer yet.
1. Update your borrowing estimate using your current income, expenses and debts.
2. Set aside buying costs and a cash buffer before deciding how much deposit to use.
3. Compare actual sales in the areas you would live in, then check the repayments at those prices.
Moneysmart recommends budgeting for upfront and ongoing ownership costs. Stamp duty and first home buyer concessions vary by state, so use the rules where you're buying. Include rates, insurance, maintenance and any strata fees in your monthly budget too.
Waiting can be the right decision if your work is uncertain, your deposit leaves no spare cash or the repayments would be difficult to sustain. A lower asking price doesn't fix those problems, and there is no need to buy simply because other people are.
If you'd like a clearer starting point, we can check what you could borrow today and what the repayments would look like. You'll have a budget to compare against the homes you're watching, whether you buy soon or keep saving.
Sources: Westpac Home Ownership Report, October 2026; Cotality Home Value Index, October 2026; APRA APS 220; RBA, September 2026; Moneysmart. Checked 17 October 2026. Worked repayments use the standard monthly amortisation formula and round to cents.
General information only, not financial or credit advice. Consider your circumstances before acting.