Should You Buy Now or Wait? The Maths Nobody Shows You
Rates have gone up three times this year.
The cash rate is parked at 4.35%. Sydney and Melbourne prices dipped last quarter. And every property headline is screaming a different prediction.
So perhaps you’re sitting on your deposit thinking: I’ll just wait until things settle down.
Completely understandable. Also, probably costing you more than you think.
Because waiting has a price tag. And in this post I’m going to show you exactly what it is, next to exactly what buying costs at today’s rates.
Meet Jess and Tom
Jess and Tom rent a house for $705 a week, the national median.
They’ve saved a $150,000 deposit. They’re eyeing off a $750,000 home. And they’ve been asking each other the same question every Sunday for six months:
“Should we just wait and see what happens with rates?”
Let’s run their numbers.
The cost of waiting
Rent: $705 a week.
That’s $36,660 this year. Gone. No equity, no asset, no piece of anything at the end.
And it’s not staying at $705 either. National vacancy is still tight at around 1.6%, and rents have climbed more than 40% over the past five years (Cotality, July 2026). Their landlord has all the bargaining power and both of them know it.
That’s the rent clock. It runs every week they wait, whether the market settles or not.
The cost of buying
Now the other side.
They buy the $750,000 home with their 20% deposit and borrow $600,000 at 6.2% over 30 years.
Repayments: $848 a week.
Add rates, water, insurance and maintenance: call it $173 a week.
Total cost of owning: $1,021 a week.
So there it is. The number this whole decision comes down to:
Owning costs Jess and Tom $316 a week more than renting.
Is that a lot? Depends what it buys them. Let’s look.
Where the $316 takes them
Fast forward ten years.
They’ve quietly paid about $95,000 off the loan just by making normal repayments.
If the property grew at a measly 2% a year, they’re sitting on roughly $409,000 in equity.
At 4% a year? Around $605,000.
And if the market did absolutely nothing for a decade, flat as a pancake, they’d still hold about $245,000. Just from paying down the loan.
Ten years of renting instead: $0. Plus rent that’s climbed from $705 towards $1,000 a week.
That’s the trade. $316 a week now, for a six-figure head start later.
Here’s the bit that should change your thinking
That $316 gap is the widest it will ever be. Today. Year one.
Why? Because rent rises every year, while their loan is built on a debt that never grows and slowly shrinks.
Jess and Tom’s repayment is based on $600,000 of debt that shrinks over time. Their mates’ rent is based on a market with tight vacancy that keeps climbing. A variable repayment can move if rates change, but the debt underneath it only gets smaller, while rent has no ceiling.
And if rates fall later? They refinance and the gap shrinks even faster. If rates rise instead, a variable repayment can go up, which is exactly why a buffer matters.
“But shouldn’t we wait for rates to come down?”
This is the bet everyone’s making right now. So let’s look at it honestly.
The big banks aren’t expecting cuts until well into 2027. One of them is tipping more hikes first. So the wait might be much longer than the headlines suggest.
But here’s the kicker. Say the cuts arrive.
Lower rates mean everyone’s borrowing capacity jumps at the same time. More buyers, more money, same number of houses. Prices and competition rise together.
You almost never get cheap money and a quiet market at once. Pick one.
Buy at 6.2% and you own the asset before the crowd arrives. Then refinance on the way down.
Waiting for the bottom has the same problem. Nobody rings a bell. The market turns before the headlines do, and the people who waited for certainty end up bidding against each other on the way back up.
Time in the market beats timing the market. It’s a cliché because the maths keeps winning.
The two walls that aren’t walls anymore
“But we don’t have the deposit sorted” used to end this conversation. Not anymore.
First, the deposit. Under the Home Guarantee Scheme you can buy with a 5% deposit and pay zero lenders mortgage insurance. That’s up to $30,000 saved. Since October 2025: no income caps, no limits on places.
Second, stamp duty for first home buyers has been slashed almost everywhere. These thresholds are current as at 1 August 2026 and change with each state budget, so always check your state revenue office:
• NSW: $0 up to $800,000, concessions to $1 million
• QLD: $0 on new builds at any price, $0 on established homes to $700,000
• VIC: $0 up to $600,000, sliding concessions to $750,000 (above $600k you’ll still pay a real chunk, budget for it)
• WA: $0 up to $600,000, concessions to $800,000
• SA: $0 on new builds and land at any price, but no relief on established homes (about $32,000 on a $700k house)
• ACT: $0 for every first home buyer
Buy new or buy under your state’s cap and the stamp duty problem mostly disappears.
Who should actually wait
Let me be clear: this isn’t for everybody. Waiting is dead right for three types of people.
One: you’d be borrowing at your absolute limit. The people who get hurt in high-rate years aren’t the ones who bought at the wrong time. They’re the ones with no buffer. Don’t be them.
Two: you’ll probably sell within five years. Buying and selling costs eat too much of the upside on a short hold.
Three: you’re living at home paying next to no rent. Then the rent clock isn’t running on you. Jess and Tom lose $36,660 a year by waiting. You lose almost nothing. Stay put, save hard and walk in later with a bigger deposit.
So should you wait?
Here’s the honest answer: the market is never going to send you an invitation.
There will always be a rate decision, an election, a forecast, a headline. The uncertainty you’re waiting out is permanent. Your readiness is the thing that changes.
The checklist is short:
• Stable income
• A real buffer, not borrowed to the eyeballs
• Repayments that fit with room to spare
• Planning to hold for the better part of a decade
Tick those four and waiting isn’t caution. It’s just paying $705 a week to watch.
Want to see your version of Jess and Tom’s numbers? What you could borrow, the weekly gap on the home you actually want, and which schemes you qualify for?
Get in touch. We run this exact comparison for people every week.
Disclaimer: This is general information only and not financial, credit or tax advice. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Everyone’s situation is different. Speak to a qualified professional before making decisions about your mortgage or finances. Market data (Cotality, July 2026) and scheme/legislative details are current at the time of writing and subject to change. Results referenced are illustrative only and may vary based on individual circumstances, including loan amount, interest rate, credit profile, lending policy and market conditions. Past performance or outcomes are not a reliable indicator of future results.
Sources: Cotality – rent data · RBA – cash rate · Home Guarantee Scheme · Revenue NSW · SRO Victoria · QLD Revenue Office · WA Government · RevenueSA · ACT Revenue Office